Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of September quarter earnings, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will be the major driving factors for the equity market this week, according to analysts. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Guru Nanak Jayanti. "India is set to release CPI and IIP data on November 12, with WPI data expected on November 14.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year.
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
'When Prime Minister Modi met President Trump, they agreed to initiate a bilateral trade dialogue.' 'It makes sense to give these negotiations a chance.'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
'If gold's recent surge has increased its allocation beyond 15 per cent in your portfolio, now may be a good time to rebalance.'
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
Dalal Street minnows stole the show in 2024, giving handsome returns to investors, helped by a largely optimistic trend in the stock market and impressive retail investors' participation. Analysts attributed the positive trend in the equity markets, where the benchmark indices shattered many records this year, to robust domestic liquidity, strong fundamentals of the Indian economy, and policy continuity.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
'I am not an aspiration-oriented politician.' 'This is the time to redefine politics.' 'Politics of power is not real politics.'
India's economic growth has slowed to a three-year low of 5.3 per cent in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal.
Bangladesh has demanded a public apology and compensation from Pakistan for the 1971 atrocities, raising "historically unresolved issues" during the first foreign secretary-level talks between the two countries in 15 years. Dhaka also asked Islamabad to pay USD 4.3 billion as its share from the combined assets at the time of East Pakistan's split from West Pakistan in 1971 to form an independent Bangladesh.
The net leasing of Grade-A commercial office space in India will stagnate this financial year at 32-34 million square feet, with global uncertainties brewing caution among key tenant categories, according to the latest Crisil Ratings report. Major seven cities in India - Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), National Capital Region (NCR) and Pune - had Grade-A office space with an operational stock of around 705 million square feet as of March 2023. India's commercial office space is dominated by technology companies, with information technology (IT) and IT-enabled services (ITeS) companies occupying 42-45 per cent of the operational stock.
Passenger vehicle dispatches in India from factories to dealers rose to record levels at over 43 lakh units in FY25, with utility vehicles accounting for 65 per cent of the total sales in the segment, industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. Passenger vehicle (PV) dispatches rose to 43,01,848 units in the last fiscal year, marking a 2 per cent increase compared to 42,18,750 units in FY 2023-24.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
While advancements in biotechnology hold immense promise for health and innovation, they also come with significant risks if misused.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
As India faces slowing economic growth, HSBC Global Research has downgraded the Indian stock market outlook from "overweight" to "neutral". In a report, the global financial services firm said profits at India Inc appeared to have softened while valuations are elevated. After annualized growth of 25 per cent in recent years, profits appear to have softened while valuations are elevated at 23x forward earnings.
The Indian economy is expected to be "a little weaker" in 2025 despite steady global growth, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has said. Georgieva also said she expects quite a lot of uncertainty in the world this year mainly around the trade policy of the US. In her annual media roundtable with a group of reporters on Friday, she said global growth is expected to be steady in 2025, but with regional divergence.
The robust export performance, coupled with a compression of imports led by gold, has led to a substantial narrowing in the current account deficit to comfortable levels.
In its report, 'Global Economic Outlook: December 2011', the agency said the Indian economy is likely to regain the 8 per cent economic growth trajectory only in 2013-14.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
The last batch of quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will guide the equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Volatility may continue amid investors' cautious approach in the election season. Markets will remain closed on Monday due to the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.
Gold prices rallied by Rs 630 to a lifetime high of Rs 82,700 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday following persistent buying by jewellers and retailers amid strong global trends, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Rallying for the sixth straight session, gold of 99.5 per cent purity appreciated by Rs 630 to hit a lifetime high of Rs 82,330 per 10 grams.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday called upon G20 nations to resolutely address the challenges, like threats to financial stability and debt distress that confront the global economy. Addressing the inaugural session of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Das said although the outlook for the global economy has improved in recent months and there is now greater optimism that the world may avoid a deep recession and only experience slow growth or softer recession,"yet uncertainties lie ahead of us." "Together we must resolutely address the challenges that confront us, including those that are of medium to long-term nature such as threat to financial stability, debt distress, climate finance, fractures in global trade and strains on global value chains.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
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